Experts set the baseline. Markets move the board.

1. 01

   Expert consensus sets the baseline

   MarketRank™ starts from expert fantasy consensus. Prediction markets don't cover every fantasy-relevant player, so consensus gives every player on the board a credible starting position — and gives us a clear reference point for measuring where the markets disagree. Team defenses are the exception: no consensus ranking exists for D/ST, so their baseline order comes straight from the market.

2. 02

   We pull live prediction markets

   Every few minutes we read fantasy-relevant NFL markets from two venues: the Polymarket Gamma API and the Kalshi Trade API. That covers position points leaders (QB, RB, WR, TE, FLEX, K and D/ST), season stat leaders, statistical thresholds and award markets. We store the current price, 24-hour change, liquidity and traded volume for each outcome.

3. 03

   We match outcomes to real players

   Market outcomes are free-text names. We normalize them (punctuation, suffixes, nicknames, common misspellings) and match them against a Sleeper NFL player snapshot so every contract lands on the right player, team and position.

4. 04

   We read markets as fantasy signals

   A price is a probability, but not every probability says the same thing about fantasy value. 'Top 5 fantasy RB' and a ladder of yardage and touchdown thresholds describe a player's likely season. 'Leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns' describes his ceiling. MarketBall interprets each market for what it actually tells us about expected fantasy value, and weights it accordingly — so an upside market informs a player's outlook without overwhelming it.

5. 05

   We weight by relevance, depth and breadth

   Not all evidence deserves equal say. Deeper, more heavily traded markets carry more weight. Markets that restate the same opinion count once, not five times. A player supported by many independent markets across several categories and both venues moves further than one supported by a single thin contract. Markets that aren't comparable to a player's fantasy role are discounted or excluded.

6. 06

   The board adjusts — that's MarketRank™

   Where credible market evidence differs from consensus, MarketRank moves the player up or down, by an amount the evidence supports. The result is a market-adjusted fantasy ranking and a 0–100 Market Score. Comparing MarketRank against Expert Rank produces Market Edge — the players where the markets and the experts most disagree.

Markets are weighted in four tiers — direct fantasy markets (season position leaders, top-3 / top-5 / top-10 finishes), season stat leaders, single-stat player props, then awards and game markets as context — and every signal is scaled by relevance, liquidity, volume, recency, and breadth. Books that re-express the same stat (1,000+, 1,250+ and 1,500+ rushing yards) count as one opinion, not three, and no single series can drive more than a third of a player's movement. A $50 market never moves a ranking the way a $100,000 market does, and Market Confidence (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW) is shown wherever a ranking appears. Every price we read is stored as an append-only snapshot, so market movement, momentum, and trends are measured against real history rather than estimates.

MarketRank™

MarketBall's market-adjusted fantasy ranking. It starts with expert consensus and adjusts the board based on what prediction markets are telling us.

Market Score

A 0–100 rating of a player's standing on the MarketRank board. Higher is better.

Expert Rank

The consensus fantasy ranking MarketRank starts from, and the comparison point for Market Edge.

Market Edge

Expert Rank minus MarketRank. Positive means our market signals support ranking a player higher than consensus; negative means they support ranking him lower.

24H / 7D move

How many ranking spots a player has gained or lost over that window. Green is up, red is down.

Signal

Whether the underlying prediction markets on a player have been moving in his favor or against him lately — bullish, bearish or neutral.

Confidence

How much credible evidence sits behind a player's adjustment: how many independent markets, how many categories, how deep, and how concentrated in one venue.